Tesla is expected to present the first official figures for 2022 this weekend or Monday at the latest. There is no information on sales and profits at the moment, but the company usually announces the number of electric cars delivered shortly after the end of each quarter, which allows conclusions to be drawn. Analysts on average expect a new record in Tesla deliveries for the first quarter of 2022, but have grown more cautious in recent days.
310,000 Tesla deliveries expected
By the last quarter of 2021, Tesla had exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. Banks previously expected 266,000 deliveries, which would have been a new record after 241,300 in the previous quarter. Finally, Tesla delivered 308,600 electric cars in the fourth quarter of 2021 and thus 936,172 for the full year, that is, 87 percent more than in 2020.
The Gigafactory in China made a huge contribution to this, of which a good 70,000 Model 3s and Model Ys were sold in December 2021 alone. In January and the shortened February 2022, this number dropped noticeably, but it is said that, overall, Tesla planned to increase production there to a million electric cars per year. This is probably one of the reasons why analysts expect a bigger increase in deliveries worldwide for the first quarter.
$TSLA Q1 delivery estimates continue to fall vs. Q1 delivery print this Saturday 4/2. As of this morning, WS 1T delivery is now at 310.2K per Bloomberg. The consensus compiled by IR among 26 analysts for Q1 deliveries (published on Monday 3/28) was 312.5K.
—Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 30, 2022
Depending on which banks and brokers you take into account when calculating an average, a consensus forecast of between 310,000 and 312,500 Tesla deliveries in the first quarter of 2022 came out. Fund manager Gary Black, who has access to such figures, reported in Twitter on Wednesday. According to him, the slightly higher value results from a compilation of 26 Tesla analyst forecasts, which was published on Monday.
No final sprint for Gigafactory in China
However, even higher numbers of more than 320,000 deliveries for Tesla’s first quarter of 2022 were previously traded. According to Black, several financial houses have lowered their forecasts in recent days, resulting in a lower average. Because in mid-March, Tesla had to stop production at its Chinese factory for two days due to new corona restrictions, and since this week it has rested again for four days.
Therefore, Tesla was unable to make an uninterrupted final sprint in China this quarter, especially as domestic deliveries are likely to have been restricted by the corona lockdown in Shanghai. To compensate, there could be at least one three-digit Model Y number from the German Gigafactory, whose deliveries in Europe began this week. And for fund manager Black, the recently lowered forecasts also have a good thing: They make it easier for Tesla to beat market expectations, he explained.